Despite nationwide recession fears, some local employers anticipate an increases in business and hiring in 2008.

That's the good news in an otherwise cautionary economic time. For those residents of western Nevada county looking for local jobs, one important question may be, "Which businesses and industries may expand hiring as we enter a likely recession?"

A recent random survey of local employers reveals there are some bright spots in what could be a challenging near-term labor market.

Recent news coverage of the country's labor statistics reminds us of the working definitions of a couple of basic economic terms: A recession is when your neighbor loses his job - and it's a depression as when you lose yours.

Though there is still debate about whether the U.S. has officially entered a recession, many people have some concern about impacts on the local job market. Those who could be looking for work in the next 1-2 years may want to consider which local employers predict growth and hiring.

We interviewed the leaders of several private sector businesses in Grass Valley and Nevada City to talk about the economy in 2008-2009, and their prospects for hiring. The study revealed that, in certain sectors of the local economy, the near-term outlook is encouraging.

We surveyed two digital media firms, a company specializing in business communication and media design, and an electronics manufacturing and distribution concern.

We also spoke with the plant manager of a Grass Valley-based furniture manufacturing company, the president of a multinational mining, energy and waste consultancy, and the general managers of both a well-known lumber retailer and an insulation installation business.

Some of these firms are among the largest private-sector employers in western Nevada County, and together they employ more than 500 people. These business leaders had mostly positive outlooks for their businesses and for hiring.



High Sierra Electronics

One example is Kathy Slouber, president of High Sierra Electronics. She says she is very concerned about the national economy, but that much of her business depends on the weather.

That's because the company manufactures and sells electronic flood warning devices, and county governments nationwide often invest in these devices when the National Weather Service forecasts regional long-term flood potential, especially in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Her company, which employs about 25 local workers, may be hiring engineers later this year.



Vector Engineering

Mark Smith, CEO of Vector Engineering, Inc. which specializes in engineering and environmental consulting for the mining, energy and solid waste industries, presented another very positive outlook.

His company was recently acquired by an Australian firm and is truly international in scope.

When asked his growth projection for 2008, he responded that they expect a 45-percent increase over 2007, which he said may translate into at least 20 local new hires and perhaps many more, adding to a current local payroll of about 100.

This is good news for those seeking work in technical and support capacities.



Velocity7

On a smaller scale, Nevada City-based Velocity7 doubled its business in 2007, yet continues to employ only 4 people. This is because their business is marketing communications.

Owner Robert Trent said his firm seeks client companies that are sincerely interested in taking a "green" approach to their image, and he helps them make this shift and communicate it to their customers and the world.

Such projects allow Velocity7 to bring in talent on a contract basis, thereby giving their clients a custom package to fit their needs. Thus, some local creative minds can find bits of this interim work, without obligating Velocity7 to hire them as employees.

Trent said he believe this approach fits in with his view that local people need to stay diversified in their employment outlook in our rural labor environment, working two or even three jobs.



Digital media

Our local technology sector continues to be a strong area for employment, providing some diversity in an economy otherwise characterized by the tourism sector and retail businesses.

We spoke with the heads of two of the larger local digital media firms to ask their views on the economy and how it may affect hiring.

Dan Castles, president and CEO of Telestream, provided an encouraging and reasoned viewpoint.

When asked about his view of the national economy for the next 12 to 24 months, he said there will be pockets of difficulty, but "the patient overall is healthy."

His business is doing very well, and he is projecting to double the revenues of his firm in two years. This may result in hiring 30 to 40 people over this period to supplement their 100-plus current employees.

As the founder 14 years ago of another digital media firm, John Abt is the CEO of AJA Video Systems. He, too, is projecting a strong upswing in business, and estimated last year's revenue as 50 percent higher than 2006.

Although he expresses strong concerns about the national economy, his company's plans call for still more expansion. On March 20, the company announced that the Grass Valley planning commission had approved a 45,200-square-foot building on Litton Drive, in Grass Valley. This would help the rapidly expanding firm house the additional 50 or so employees they want to add over the next two years to their existing workforce of around 100.



Furniture by Thurston

Another of the larger private sector employers is Furniture by Thurston, located in the Loma Rica industrial area. Plant manager Dan Slayton said the company manufactures furniture for a somewhat specialized niche, the college dorm and military housing sectors of the furniture market.

The firm is thus less affected by the overall national economy, and he reported that they currently employ about 65 to 70 local workers. Seasonal hiring is underway as they gear up for their busy production season this summer.

Their business depends on domestic military spending for base housing and the needs of colleges across the country requiring updated or new dorm facilities for incoming students. This latter market, he noted, seems to increase somewhat opposite the direction of the economy, reflecting, perhaps, the desires of young people to invest in a college education to expand employment options.



Hills Flat Lumber

One of the largest sectors of our local economy is retail. This area serves both our local citizens and the tourist trade, and is one of the largest sources of income for both Nevada City and Grass Valley.

A long-time contributor to our community for several generations is the family-owned Hills Flat Lumber Co. General Manager Jeff Pardini runs the day-to-day operations and has worked in his family business in some capacity since he was 4 years old.

His business is driven by both the local economy and the construction season. Despite the local downturn in construction in the latter half of last year, his company still posted a profit.

He is concerned about the economy as it affects the local construction and remodeling market, but still sees potential growth in 2008, partly because of the large number of retirees who want to remodel their "dream homes" regardless of the uncertain economy.

Hills Flat Lumber currently employs around 74 in their Grass Valley operation, and Pardini said hiring in 2008 will depend on sales volume.

We spoke with the head of a company that sells and installs insulation for both new construction and for remodels. With energy prices rising all around, their business offers a way to beat the long-term costs of heating and cooling homes and businesses.

General Manager Clark Gillis notes the number of houses built on speculation is down from a year ago, and that his business overall is down 20 percent. He expects hiring to be flat until the real estate market picks up and remains "cautiously optimistic."



Upgrade skills, look for the edge

The results of this informal survey show that the local labor market, much like the economy as a whole, has its ups and downs.

Though the Nevada County unemployment rate remains relatively low, it doesn't completely reflect the total numbers of local job seekers. Many people looking for work are not counted since they are not eligible for unemployment insurance. Employment analysts say the actual number of people actively looking for work may be close to double the unemployment rate.

So though it may be a slow job market, there are a few lessons to take from this survey.

First, it pays to be flexible in what types of work to consider. Be creative but honest in assessing and packaging your skill sets. Second, one may want to upgrade job skills to match likely openings over the next 12 to 24 months. Keeping an eye on such trends may provide an edge for those seeking local employment.



Writer Dave Clark lives in Alta Sierra and has worked as a labor market analyst at Workforce Connection in Nevada City. He is currently dipping his big toe into the local job scene.