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The current dry season in the Sierra is indicative of its unpredictability, but not necessarily a sign of impending drought - yet, experts said Friday.
This year's dryness hasn't caused great concern yet because the rainy season is not over, Sierra water experts said. Most reservoirs will be full and delivering to the majority of Californians this year, but those same experts fear what could happen if next year is as dry as the spring of 2007.
"Another year like this one and the water managers will be singing a different tune," said Kelly Redmond at the Western Regional Climate Center. "Two bad years in a row will be a different ballgame."
On the Nevada Irrigation District watershed above the Yuba and Bear rivers, this year's snowpack water content on May 1 was 44 percent of normal according to NID Operations Supervisor and snow surveyor Sue Sindt. Low readings all spring have forced NID to store water, and the reservoirs were at 109 percent of normal capacity for May 1, Sindt said.
"We're doing our best to store every bit of it, but we don't expect Bowman and Jackson Meadows (reservoirs) to fill," Sindt said. "This year, the snow is melting sooner. It usually peaks at the end of May, and it's coming now."
NID will be able to make full deliveries to its domestic and untreated water users this year, Sindt said.
"But we're looking for voluntary conservation because any carryover we'll keep in storage for our customers for next year, especially if it's dry," Sindt said.
At the state snow range near Lake Tahoe, the water content was 27 percent of normal May 1, according to the California Department of Water Resources. That doesn't necessarily rattle Frank Gehrke, the top man for the department's snow survey.
"California has wild fluctuations of incoming water," Gehrke said. "There can be astounding differences from one year to the next."
Looking at larger picture
Take, for instance, last year's ultra-wet spring weather in the Sierra compared to this year.
The state measures yearly precipitation from July 1 to June 30. According to state statistics, the Sierra had 42 million acre-feet of runoff water in the 2006 weather year. An acre-foot of water is one acre large, one foot deep.
A record of almost 53 million acre feet ran into the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys in 1983, according to state statistics. The drought year of 1977 set the low record with just more than six million acre feet.
Those fluctuations are typical of the Sierra, which makes it that much harder to see the overall picture, Redmond said. "It's been going back and forth over the last 25 years alternating between dry and wet" in five to seven-year cycles.
"The question around here is, are we just in one of those spells, or something with more time involved with it indicative of climate change?" Redmond said.
To get better data on that, the state and the U.S. Forest Service are going to start tracking the snowline more precisely, Redmond said. The program is evolving and the instruments for such measurement have yet to be installed.
Redmond said temperatures have risen one to two degrees in the Sierra in the last 25 to 30 years, which could be causing less snow and earlier runoff of rain that, years before, had fallen as snow.
"It's difficult to say if the dry pattern is or is not a climate change," Redmond said. "The expectation with climate change is that precipitation zones would slowly shift northward over the next century."
Predicting the Sierra is risky business at best, Gehrke said.
"We know it won't rain this summer, but as far as next year, nobody has a clue," Gehrke said. "The only caveat is when we're going into a strong El Niño (wet weather pattern), but that isn't happening."
<i>To contact Senior Staff Writer Dave Moller, e-mail davem@ theunion.com or call 477-4237.</i>
This year's dryness hasn't caused great concern yet because the rainy season is not over, Sierra water experts said. Most reservoirs will be full and delivering to the majority of Californians this year, but those same experts fear what could happen if next year is as dry as the spring of 2007.
"Another year like this one and the water managers will be singing a different tune," said Kelly Redmond at the Western Regional Climate Center. "Two bad years in a row will be a different ballgame."
On the Nevada Irrigation District watershed above the Yuba and Bear rivers, this year's snowpack water content on May 1 was 44 percent of normal according to NID Operations Supervisor and snow surveyor Sue Sindt. Low readings all spring have forced NID to store water, and the reservoirs were at 109 percent of normal capacity for May 1, Sindt said.
"We're doing our best to store every bit of it, but we don't expect Bowman and Jackson Meadows (reservoirs) to fill," Sindt said. "This year, the snow is melting sooner. It usually peaks at the end of May, and it's coming now."
NID will be able to make full deliveries to its domestic and untreated water users this year, Sindt said.
"But we're looking for voluntary conservation because any carryover we'll keep in storage for our customers for next year, especially if it's dry," Sindt said.
At the state snow range near Lake Tahoe, the water content was 27 percent of normal May 1, according to the California Department of Water Resources. That doesn't necessarily rattle Frank Gehrke, the top man for the department's snow survey.
"California has wild fluctuations of incoming water," Gehrke said. "There can be astounding differences from one year to the next."
Looking at larger picture
Take, for instance, last year's ultra-wet spring weather in the Sierra compared to this year.
The state measures yearly precipitation from July 1 to June 30. According to state statistics, the Sierra had 42 million acre-feet of runoff water in the 2006 weather year. An acre-foot of water is one acre large, one foot deep.
A record of almost 53 million acre feet ran into the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys in 1983, according to state statistics. The drought year of 1977 set the low record with just more than six million acre feet.
Those fluctuations are typical of the Sierra, which makes it that much harder to see the overall picture, Redmond said. "It's been going back and forth over the last 25 years alternating between dry and wet" in five to seven-year cycles.
"The question around here is, are we just in one of those spells, or something with more time involved with it indicative of climate change?" Redmond said.
To get better data on that, the state and the U.S. Forest Service are going to start tracking the snowline more precisely, Redmond said. The program is evolving and the instruments for such measurement have yet to be installed.
Redmond said temperatures have risen one to two degrees in the Sierra in the last 25 to 30 years, which could be causing less snow and earlier runoff of rain that, years before, had fallen as snow.
"It's difficult to say if the dry pattern is or is not a climate change," Redmond said. "The expectation with climate change is that precipitation zones would slowly shift northward over the next century."
Predicting the Sierra is risky business at best, Gehrke said.
"We know it won't rain this summer, but as far as next year, nobody has a clue," Gehrke said. "The only caveat is when we're going into a strong El Niño (wet weather pattern), but that isn't happening."
<i>To contact Senior Staff Writer Dave Moller, e-mail davem@ theunion.com or call 477-4237.</i>
Historic Sierra runoff
• Driest year: 1977, with 6.17 million acre feet.• Wettest year: 1983, with 52.69 million acre feet.
• Largest year-to-year fluctuation: 1955, with 39.56 million acre feet, compared to 14.48 million acre feet in 1956; that's a difference of 25.08 million acre feet, or four times the 1977 total.
<i>- Statistics provided by the California Department of Water Resources</i>
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